{r analysis, include = FALSE} #source('synthetic_control_analysis.R', local = TRUE) #

Fiji Results

combine estimates

Stacking Estimate (95% CI) SC Estimate (95% CI) Time trend Estimate (95% CI) Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
ac_pneumonia_Age1 0.94 (0.79, 1.12) 0.93 (0.77, 1.13) 0.81 (0.57, 1.16) 0.92 (0.67, 1.25) 0.95 (0.77, 1.14)
ac_pneumonia_Age1_0 0.96 (0.8, 1.16) 0.95 (0.76, 1.16) 0.8 (0.53, 1.17) 0.9 (0.62, 1.29) 0.93 (0.72, 1.17)
ac_pneumonia_Age1_1 0.91 (0.73, 1.17) 0.93 (0.75, 1.24) 0.85 (0.57, 1.29) 0.99 (0.73, 1.35) 0.92 (0.76, 1.1)
ac_pneumonia_Age2 0.85 (0.68, 1.07) 0.64 (0.52, 0.8) 0.67 (0.47, 0.96) 0.9 (0.64, 1.28) 0.85 (0.63, 1.16)
ac_pneumonia_Age3 0.57 (0.45, 0.72) 0.55 (0.44, 0.69) 0.37 (0.25, 0.56) 0.59 (0.39, 0.91) 0.54 (0.33, 0.93)
ac_pneumonia_Age4 0.61 (0.48, 0.79) 0.65 (0.46, 0.92) 0.42 (0.27, 0.68) 0.49 (0.32, 0.8) 0.58 (0.42, 0.8)
ac_pneumonia_Age5 0.91 (0.71, 1.18) 0.97 (0.78, 1.19) 0.87 (0.62, 1.21) 0.88 (0.65, 1.18) 1.06 (0.8, 1.41)
ac_pneumonia_Age6 1.1 (0.86, 1.4) 1.2 (0.96, 1.86) 1.04 (0.7, 1.49) 1.24 (0.89, 1.7) 1.1 (0.85, 1.4)
HP_all_raw_Age1 0.74 (0.58, 0.94) 0.74 (0.58, 0.95) 0.63 (0.38, 1.04) 0.69 (0.44, 1.11) 0.72 (0.54, 0.97)
RP_all_raw_Age1 0.71 (0.54, 0.96) 0.72 (0.38, 1.13) 0.38 (0.21, 0.68) 0.41 (0.23, 0.72) 0.7 (0.52, 0.95)
VS_SP_all_raw_Age1 0.69 (0.52, 0.9) 0.68 (0.52, 0.89) 0.87 (0.54, 1.34) 0.94 (0.6, 1.43) 0.72 (0.54, 0.93)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups Synthetic Controls Time trend Time trend (no offset) STL+PCA
ac_pneumonia_Age1 0.882 0.001 0.118 0.000
ac_pneumonia_Age1_0 0.727 0.001 0.272 0.000
ac_pneumonia_Age1_1 0.000 0.485 0.000 0.515
ac_pneumonia_Age2 0.167 0.000 0.412 0.421
ac_pneumonia_Age3 0.768 0.000 0.232 0.000
ac_pneumonia_Age4 0.259 0.000 0.122 0.618
ac_pneumonia_Age5 0.265 0.735 0.000 0.000
ac_pneumonia_Age6 0.024 0.000 0.000 0.976
HP_all_raw_Age1 0.942 0.000 0.058 0.000
RP_all_raw_Age1 0.079 0.000 0.000 0.921
VS_SP_all_raw_Age1 0.982 0.000 0.018 0.000

Inclusion Probabilities

Group Greatest Inclusion Variable Greatest Inclusion Probability Second Greatest Inclusion Variable Second Greatest Inclusion Probability Third Greatest Inclusion Variable Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
ac_pneumonia_Age1 A00_B99_norota 0.0794717 ach_noj 0.0779943 Q00_Q99 0.0676562
ac_pneumonia_Age1_0 R00_R99 0.1597786 ach_noj 0.0807045 A00_B99_norota 0.0771365
ac_pneumonia_Age1_1 ach_noj 0.4678845 R00_R99 0.1069449 L00_L99 0.0907818
ac_pneumonia_Age2 L00_L99 0.2210464 ach_noj 0.0938043 R00_R99 0.0770964
ac_pneumonia_Age3 L00_L99 0.1886030 R00_R99 0.1591931 K00_K95 0.1143463
ac_pneumonia_Age4 M00_M99 0.6382860 N00_N99 0.4918235 pandemic 0.4200696
ac_pneumonia_Age5 H00_H99 0.1091311 A00_B99_norota 0.0906234 N00_N99 0.0711120
ac_pneumonia_Age6 H00_H99 0.8999845 ach_noj 0.1310329 E00_E89 0.0609907
HP_all_raw_Age1 L00_L99 0.7030034 R00_R99 0.1252517 ach_noj 0.1241086
RP_all_raw_Age1 ach_noj 0.4983625 A00_B99_norota 0.2276589 Q00_Q99 0.1711811
VS_SP_all_raw_Age1 ach_noj 0.0967894 Q00_Q99 0.0875662 A00_B99_norota 0.0755335

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 1 Inclusion Probability of Control 1 Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 2 Inclusion Probability of Control 2 Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 3 Inclusion Probability of Control 3 Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
ac_pneumonia_Age1 0.93 (0.77, 1.13) A00_B99_norota 0.08 0.94 (0.77, 1.21) Q00_Q99 0.07 0.94 (0.78, 1.23) L00_L99 0.07 0.94 (0.78, 1.21)
ac_pneumonia_Age1_0 0.95 (0.76, 1.16) R00_R99 0.16 0.95 (0.75, 1.18) A00_B99_norota 0.08 0.95 (0.75, 1.18) L00_L99 0.07 0.95 (0.75, 1.18)
ac_pneumonia_Age1_1 0.93 (0.75, 1.24) R00_R99 0.11 0.95 (0.76, 1.24) L00_L99 0.09 0.98 (0.77, 1.26) pandemic 0.07 1 (0.78, 1.26)
ac_pneumonia_Age2 0.64 (0.52, 0.8) L00_L99 0.22 0.65 (0.49, 0.81) R00_R99 0.08 0.65 (0.49, 0.81) S00_T88 0.07 0.65 (0.47, 0.8)
ac_pneumonia_Age3 0.55 (0.44, 0.69) L00_L99 0.19 0.54 (0.4, 0.7) R00_R99 0.16 0.54 (0.4, 0.7) K00_K95 0.11 0.54 (0.4, 0.7)
ac_pneumonia_Age4 0.65 (0.46, 0.92) M00_M99 0.64 0.75 (0.54, 1) N00_N99 0.49 0.72 (0.48, 0.95) pandemic 0.42 0.72 (0.49, 0.95)
ac_pneumonia_Age5 0.97 (0.78, 1.19) H00_H99 0.11 0.98 (0.82, 1.27) A00_B99_norota 0.09 0.98 (0.8, 1.26) N00_N99 0.07 0.98 (0.81, 1.27)
ac_pneumonia_Age6 1.2 (0.96, 1.86) H00_H99 0.9 1.71 (1.28, 2.37) E00_E89 0.06 1.7 (1.3, 2.41) E10_E14 0.05 1.74 (1.32, 2.41)
HP_all_raw_Age1 0.74 (0.58, 0.95) L00_L99 0.7 0.72 (0.56, 0.96) R00_R99 0.13 0.72 (0.57, 1) A00_B99_norota 0.1 0.73 (0.57, 1)
RP_all_raw_Age1 0.72 (0.38, 1.13) A00_B99_norota 0.23 0.67 (0.36, 1.12) Q00_Q99 0.17 0.68 (0.36, 1.12) R00_R99 0.15 0.64 (0.36, 1.09)
VS_SP_all_raw_Age1 0.68 (0.52, 0.89) Q00_Q99 0.09 0.68 (0.51, 0.93) A00_B99_norota 0.08 0.69 (0.52, 0.93) L00_L99 0.07 0.69 (0.52, 0.97)

Plots

ac_pneumonia_Age1

ac_pneumonia_Age1_0

ac_pneumonia_Age1_1

ac_pneumonia_Age2

ac_pneumonia_Age3

ac_pneumonia_Age4

ac_pneumonia_Age5

ac_pneumonia_Age6

HP_all_raw_Age1

RP_all_raw_Age1

VS_SP_all_raw_Age1